As of April 2024, the average lead time for electrical transformers has increased to 130 weeks, up from 115 weeks in 2021. Specifically, lead times for large transformers, such as generator step-up (GSU) and substation power transformers, can vary significantly, ranging from 80 to 210 weeks.
According to researchers, the heightened demand for electrical transformers stems from several factors: increased electrification, greater integration of clean energy into the grid, and the aging infrastructure requiring replacement. Preliminary analyses indicate that overall transformer capacity needs to expand significantly—between 160% to 260%—by 2050 compared to 2021 levels. This expansion is necessary to accommodate rising energy demands across residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Some factors that have contributed to the increase in lead times include:
- Supply shortages
- Constraints on skilled labor, equipment, and materials
- Rising manufacturing costs
- Slowed production during the pandemic
Here are some lead times for specific types of transformers:
- Pad-mount service transformers: 110–130 weeks
- Generators (100+ kilowatts): 36–48 weeks
- Low voltage drawout switchgear: 70–80 weeks
- Automatic transfer switch: 45–80 weeks
Transformer shortage affecting U.S. utilities
The significance of step-up transformers in renewable energy and battery storage systems. Step-up transformers are crucial for converting low-voltage electrical generation into high-voltage electricity for efficient long-distance transmission. The demand for these transformers is expected to rise significantly as they play a vital role in integrating wind and solar farms into the power grid. This integration involves adjusting voltages to enhance efficiency and reliability.
Looking ahead, there is an anticipated shift in the types of transformers utilities will require. Larger transformer sizes will be necessary, driven by increased electrification. Moreover, there will be a heightened demand for pad-mount, dry-type, and submersible transformers, all contributing to the pressure on transformer manufacturing. This trend reflects the growing emphasis on enhancing grid reliability and resilience amidst evolving energy needs.